PBOC reports weaker TSF of RMB856b in October

On back of lower RMB loans.

According to Barclays, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reported on 11 November 2013 that October new RMB loans amounted to RMB 506.1bn (lower than Bloomberg consensus of RMB 580bn).

As Barclays expected, total social financing (TSF) weakened further to RMB 856bn in Oct (vs. RMB 1.4tn in Sep), mainly due to softening RMB loans (+RMB 506bn in Oct vs. +RMB 787bn in Sep) and trust loans (+RMB 40bn in Oct vs. +RMB 135bn in Sep).

Here's more:

New loan growth was mainly supported by new short-term (ST) corporate loans (+RMB 215bn in Oct, 42% of total new loans) and mid- to long-term (MLT) retail loans (+RMB 154bn, 30% of total new loans), but offset by lower ST retail loans (+RMB 51bn, only 10% of total new loans).

Total RMB deposits in Oct decreased by RMB 403bn, after the seasonal strong quarter-end rush of +RMB 1.6tn in Sep.

Going into year-end, we expect TSF and new RMB loans to continue their “normalization” trend, as TSF and total new loans already amounted to RMB 14.8tn/RMB 7.8tn in 10M13, on track to reach the potential full year scale of RMB 17tn/RMB 9tn, respectively.

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